UK shopper confidence falls to document low in September

UK shopper confidence has defied expectations of an enchancment and fallen to a brand new all-time low, as households battle below the strain of the price of residing disaster.

The patron confidence index, a carefully watched measure of how individuals view their private funds and wider financial prospects, dropped 5 share factors to minus 49 in September, analysis group GfK mentioned on Friday. That was the bottom since data started in 1974.

Joe Staton, GfK shopper technique director, mentioned confidence had “tumbled” in September to a brand new low as households “buckl[ed] below the strain of the UK’s rising value of residing disaster pushed by quickly rising meals costs, home gas payments and mortgage funds”.

The autumn defied expectations of a small rise to minus 42 forecast by economists polled by Reuters, who thought there could be some enchancment following the federal government’s £150bn package deal geared toward freezing family power payments.

The information come the day after the Financial institution of England lifted rates of interest by 50 foundation factors to 2.25 per cent, the very best since 2008, that means borrowing will turn out to be dearer for companies and households.

“For shoppers already struggling to maintain their family funds in test, the elevated value of borrowing on account of the speed rise . . . could signify the breaking level, resulting in the acceleration of lower in demand,” mentioned James Brown, managing companion at international consultancy Simon-Kucher & Companions.

Incorporating the power payments freeze, the BoE expects UK inflation to peak at 11 per cent in October from its present 9.9 per cent, a close to 40-year excessive, additional eroding households’ actual incomes.

The information additionally observe affirmation, forward of Friday’s mini-Price range, that the federal government will from November reverse the 1.25 per cent rise in nationwide insurance coverage contributions that was launched in April.

Staton mentioned the “mini-Price range, and the longer-term agenda to drive the economic system and assist rebalance family funds, will likely be a serious check for the recognition of Liz Truss’s new authorities”.

The GfK index, primarily based on interviews collected within the first two weeks of the month, confirmed scores in relation to 4 of the 5 questions posed, which contact on private funds and the broader financial image, at document lows.

Ahead-looking indicators, which monitor expectations for the subsequent 12 months, registered the most important fall, dropping 9 share factors for private funds and eight share factors for the economic system.

Economists anticipate record-low shopper confidence to lead to falling spending, a development registered by the BoE in its brokers survey printed on Thursday.

It confirmed that meals retailers reported prospects choosing cheaper items and chopping again on non-essential gadgets, corresponding to confectionery. Low cost chains gained market share, whereas gross sales of home items, corresponding to furnishings, electrical items and home-improvement merchandise, fell.

Clothes gross sales have been supported by the return to the workplace, however in hospitality, gross sales have been down on pre-pandemic ranges. Vacation reserving additionally weakened and home tourism was restricted by increased petrol costs.

Demand was robust, nonetheless, for monetary companies and authorized recommendation, corresponding to tax planning, fairness launch, debt consolidation and early reimbursement. Third sector organisations additionally reported a big rise in individuals looking for debt recommendation.

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